Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Jo AdellBatting2-4
- Jack KochanowiczPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Orioles- Ryan O'HearnBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 5Laureano homered to left (387 feet).0–2
- 2O'Hearn homered to right (405 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 62%
- ML LAA +155 / BAL -185
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- BAL: Elo 56.1%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -166
- LAA +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.2 – 5.3 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1453 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −9 | LAA: Jack Kochanowicz: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BAL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +42 Elo | BAL 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 58.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.925th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −1.327th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 7th of 3018–18 | Road vs home | 13–1928th of 30 |
| 19th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149720th of 30 |
| 26th of 301453 | Elo rating | 148323rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–35 | 28–39 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–13 | 11–23 |
| Underdog | 28–22 | 17–16 |
| Overs–unders | 37–30 | 31–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 5–11 BAL in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 16.