Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Randy ArozarenaBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- George KirbyPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 14 K
Angels- Taylor WardBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 5Solano singled to center, Garver scored, Polanco to second.3–2
- 5Polanco singled to center, Arozarena scored, Garver to third.2–2
- 4Ward homered to left (432 feet), Trout scored.1–2
- 1Arozarena doubled to right, Rodríguez scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 54%
- ML SEA -130 / LAA +110
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- SEA: Elo 54.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -119
- LAA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.9 – 4.6 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1450 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | 0 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +32 Elo | SEA 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.315th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.125th of 30 |
| 19th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.925th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 5th of 3016–14 | Road vs home | 12–1526th of 30 |
| 29th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 30 |
| 17th of 301507 | Elo rating | 145026th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–36 | 30–33 |
| Last 10 | 0–10 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 9–30 | 3–11 |
| Underdog | 18–6 | 27–22 |
| Overs–unders | 34–29 | 35–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 15–15 LAA in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 30.