Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Angels- Travis d'ArnaudBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 5Schanuel singled to right, Taylor scored.4–5
- 5Taylor doubled to center, Adell scored.4–4
- 5Rodríguez tripled to center, Williamson scored.4–3
- 4d'Arnaud homered to left center (413 feet), Soler scored.3–3
- 4Taveras grounded out to shortstop, Raleigh scored, Arozarena to third.3–1
- 4Tellez hit sacrifice fly to right, Rodríguez scored, Arozarena to second, Raleigh to third.2–1
- 3Neto singled to left, Taylor scored.1–1
- 3Crawford singled to right, Williamson scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 52%
- ML SEA -120 / LAA +100
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- SEA: Elo 56.0%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -109
- LAA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.3 – 4.2 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1447 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | 0 | SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +42 Elo | SEA 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 59.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.125th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.925th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3016–12 | Road vs home | 10–1528th of 30 |
| 30th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 16th of 301510 | Elo rating | 144726th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–34 | 28–33 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–28 | 3–11 |
| Underdog | 18–6 | 25–22 |
| Overs–unders | 32–29 | 33–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 15–13 LAA in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 28.