Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting2-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Angels- Jo AdellBatting3-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Jack KochanowiczPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Raleigh homered to right center (427 feet).6–8
- 7Adell singled to right, Taylor scored, Rengifo to third.5–8
- 6Neto singled to left, Rengifo scored, Adell to third.5–7
- 6Young singled to right, Mastrobuoni scored.5–6
- 5Ward doubled to center, Schanuel scored.4–6
- 4Adell homered to center (445 feet).4–5
- 3Taylor doubled to right, Ward scored.4–4
- 3Neto scored, Ward safe at first on error by first baseman Tellez.4–3
- 2Adell homered to left center (431 feet).4–2
- 2Taylor homered to left (386 feet).4–1
- 2Crawford singled to right, Young scored.4–0
- 1Raleigh homered to right center (372 feet), Polanco scored and Rodríguez scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 61%
- ML SEA -175 / LAA +145
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- SEA: Elo 58.0%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- SEA -156
- LAA +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.7 – 3.8 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1448 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −1 | SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Jack Kochanowicz: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +56 Elo | SEA 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.125th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.925th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 4th of 3016–13 | Road vs home | 11–1526th of 30 |
| 30th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 16th of 301509 | Elo rating | 144826th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–35 | 29–33 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–29 | 3–11 |
| Underdog | 18–6 | 26–22 |
| Overs–unders | 33–29 | 34–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 15–14 LAA in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 29.