Athletics at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Max MuncyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Angels- Jo AdellBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching7.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Muncy homered to right center (387 feet), Soderstrom scored.4–7
- 8Adell singled to right, Schanuel scored and d'Arnaud scored, Taylor to third.2–7
- 8Trout hit sacrifice fly to center, Neto scored.2–5
- 8Bleday homered to center (403 feet), Urías scored.2–4
- 4Adell homered to left (379 feet).0–4
- 3Trout singled to left, Neto scored, Schanuel to second.0–3
- 3Schanuel singled to center, Newman scored, Neto to third.0–2
- 3Neto singled to left, Kingery scored, Newman to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 54%
- ML ATH +110 / LAA -130
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- LAA: Elo 55.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- LAA -119
- ATH +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.1 – 4.4 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1436 | 1449 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +4 | ATH: Grant Holman: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · LAA: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +40 Elo | LAA 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 57.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 29th of 306.0 | Runs allowed | 5.125th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.7 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3014–18 | Road vs home | 12–1626th of 30 |
| 21st of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 30 |
| 28th of 301436 | Elo rating | 144926th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–36 | 31–33 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–12 | 3–11 |
| Underdog | 25–24 | 28–22 |
| Overs–unders | 40–27 | 35–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 14–16 LAA in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 30.
