Athletics at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting4-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- JP SearsPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Angels- Jo AdellBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Rooker homered to center (408 feet), Schuemann scored.5–6
- 6Adell homered to left (422 feet), Soler scored.3–6
- 6d'Arnaud hit sacrifice fly to center, Ward scored.3–4
- 6Soler singled to center, Neto scored and Trout scored, Ward to third.3–3
- 6Ward hit by pitch, Newman scored, Trout to second, Neto to third.3–1
- 4Schuemann hit sacrifice fly to center, Urías scored.3–0
- 3Rooker homered to left (412 feet).2–0
- 1Muncy singled to center, Rooker scored, Soderstrom to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 57%
- ML ATH +125 / LAA -150
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- LAA: Elo 56.3%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- LAA -135
- ATH +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.4 – 5.1 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1433 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +2 | ATH: JP Sears: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +44 Elo | LAA 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.217th of 30 |
| 29th of 306.0 | Runs allowed | 5.024th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.7 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3014–20 | Road vs home | 14–1625th of 30 |
| 24th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149819th of 30 |
| 28th of 301433 | Elo rating | 145226th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–37 | 32–34 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–12 | 4–12 |
| Underdog | 26–25 | 28–22 |
| Overs–unders | 41–28 | 36–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 14–18 LAA in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 32.
