Athletics at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Mitch SpencePitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Angels- Travis d'ArnaudBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 10Schanuel singled to center, Adell scored, Neto to third.1–2
- 8d'Arnaud homered to left center (398 feet).1–1
- 6Rooker doubled to left, Schuemann scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 61%
- ML ATH +145 / LAA -175
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.7 pts
- LAA: Elo 53.2%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- LAA -156
- ATH +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.3 – 5.2 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1434 | 1451 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −5 | ATH: Mitch Spence: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +23 Elo | LAA 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 29th of 306.0 | Runs allowed | 5.125th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.7 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3014–19 | Road vs home | 13–1626th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 28th of 301434 | Elo rating | 145126th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–37 | 32–33 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–12 | 4–11 |
| Underdog | 25–25 | 28–22 |
| Overs–unders | 41–27 | 36–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 14–17 LAA in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 31.
