Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Nolan SchanuelBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Yankees- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting3-5
- Clarke SchmidtPitching7.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 11Schanuel doubled to left, Moore scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 64%
- ML LAA +170 / NYY -205
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.4 pts
- NYY: Elo 67.8%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- NYY -181
- LAA +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.1 – 4.4 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1447 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +6 | LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +130 Elo | NYY 67.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 63.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 64.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.33rd of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 3.88th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +1.51st of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 13th of 3018–21 | Road vs home | 21–129th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 26th of 301447 | Elo rating | 15542nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–37 | 34–36 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–13 | 28–33 |
| Underdog | 29–24 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 39–31 | 31–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 7–8 NYY in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 15.