Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Nolan SchanuelBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Orioles- Gary SanchezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Cade PovichPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Westburg homered to left center (390 feet), Carlson scored.2–11
- 7Sánchez homered to left center (387 feet), Westburg scored, Urías scored and Henderson scored.2–9
- 6Mayo doubled to left, Mullins scored.2–5
- 6Mullins reached on bunt single to pitcher, Sánchez scored on throwing error by pitcher Kikuchi, Mullins to third.2–4
- 4Laureano singled to left, Henderson scored.2–3
- 3Neto scored on Povich wild pitch, Schanuel to second on wild pitch by Povich.2–2
- 3Neto scored on Povich wild pitch, Schanuel to second on wild pitch by Povich.2–2
- 1Urías homered to left center (410 feet), Westburg scored.1–2
- 1Schanuel homered to center (416 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 51%
- ML LAA -105 / BAL -115
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- BAL: Elo 55.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BAL -104
- LAA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.2 – 4.3 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1450 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −10 | LAA: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Scott Blewett: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +39 Elo | BAL 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 56.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.925th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −1.227th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 12th of 3018–20 | Road vs home | 15–1926th of 30 |
| 20th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149425th of 30 |
| 26th of 301450 | Elo rating | 148623rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–36 | 29–40 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–13 | 12–24 |
| Underdog | 29–23 | 17–16 |
| Overs–unders | 38–31 | 32–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 5–13 BAL in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 18.