Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Luis RengifoBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Orioles- Cedric MullinsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rengifo homered to right center (419 feet).5–6
- 6Sánchez homered to left center (394 feet).4–6
- 6Mullins homered to center (394 feet), Laureano scored.4–5
- 6Rengifo homered to right (355 feet).4–3
- 5Ward doubled to left, Neto scored, Schanuel to third.3–3
- 3Westburg singled to right, Henderson scored.2–3
- 3Henderson singled to right, Rutschman scored.2–2
- 1Westburg grounded out to third, Holliday scored, Rutschman to third.2–1
- 1Trout homered to left (402 feet), Neto scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 58%
- ML LAA +130 / BAL -155
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- BAL: Elo 59.4%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -140
- LAA +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.4 – 5.1 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1451 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +17 | LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 0.83 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +66 Elo | BAL 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.925th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −1.227th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 9th of 3018–19 | Road vs home | 14–1927th of 30 |
| 20th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149523rd of 30 |
| 26th of 301451 | Elo rating | 148523rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–36 | 29–39 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–13 | 12–23 |
| Underdog | 28–23 | 17–16 |
| Overs–unders | 37–31 | 31–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 5–12 BAL in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 17.