Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Taylor WardBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Yankees- Giancarlo StantonBatting2-4
- Will WarrenPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 7Schanuel grounded out to second, Rengifo scored, Neto to second, Adell to third.4–0
- 3Ward singled to left, Neto scored and Schanuel scored, Trout to second.3–0
- 2Rengifo singled to right, O'Hoppe scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 69%
- ML LAA +205 / NYY -250
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- NYY: Elo 64.5%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- NYY -218
- LAA +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.4 – 5.1 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1449 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −17 | LAA: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.87 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +104 Elo | NYY 64.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 66.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 66.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.23rd of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.88th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +1.42nd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 12th of 3019–21 | Road vs home | 21–1312th of 30 |
| 17th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 26th of 301449 | Elo rating | 15532nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–37 | 34–37 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–13 | 28–34 |
| Underdog | 30–24 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 39–32 | 31–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 8–8 NYY in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 16.