Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Ramon UriasBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Max FriedPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Henderson singled to left, Sánchez scored, O'Hearn to second.5–3
- 8Urías homered to right (337 feet).4–3
- 6Mayo singled to center, Cowser scored, Sánchez to second.3–3
- 3Judge homered to right center (368 feet).2–3
- 1Domínguez hit sacrifice fly to center, Grisham scored.2–2
- 1Chisholm Jr. singled to left, Goldschmidt scored, Judge to second, Grisham to third.2–1
- 1Sánchez singled to left, Holliday scored and Laureano scored, Cowser to second.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 73%
- ML BAL +255 / NYY -320
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.7 pts
- NYY: Elo 61.4%, market 73.0%
- Fair odds
- NYY -270
- BAL +270 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.2 – 5.3 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +14 | BAL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYY: Max Fried: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +80 Elo | NYY 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 68.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 67.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 73.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.13rd of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.88th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +1.41st of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 23rd of 3016–23 | Road vs home | 22–1513th of 30 |
| 24th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149916th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301490 | Elo rating | 15502nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–42 | 35–39 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–24 | 29–36 |
| Underdog | 19–18 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 34–40 | 31–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 17–12 NYY in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 29.