Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Rays- Brandon LoweBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan PepiotPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 5Mangum doubled to left, Aranda scored and Caminero scored.1–7
- 4B. Lowe homered to right center (426 feet), J. Lowe scored.1–5
- 4Rutschman homered to right (357 feet).1–3
- 3Mangum reached on infield single to third, Díaz scored.0–3
- 2Morel reached on bunt single to shortstop, Mangum scored, Jansen to second.0–2
- 1J. Lowe homered to right (334 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 50%
- ML BAL -110 / TB -110
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.2 pts
- TB: Elo 56.2%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- TB -100
- BAL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.3 – 4.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | +7 | BAL: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.95 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Ryan Pepiot: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +43 Elo | TB 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.76th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.96th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 24th of 3014–21 | Road vs home | 23–2018th of 30 |
| 26th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301489 | Elo rating | 152610th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–40 | 37–34 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–24 | 13–24 |
| Underdog | 17–16 | 24–10 |
| Overs–unders | 33–37 | 29–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 17–9 TB in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 26.