Tampa Bay Rays at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Jonathan ArandaBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Mets- Starling MarteBatting3-4, 3 RBI
- Clay HolmesPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Jansen homered to left center (389 feet), Misner scored.7–5
- 6Misner singled to left, Mangum scored.5–5
- 6Caballero grounded out to shortstop, Aranda scored, Mangum to second.4–5
- 6Mangum singled to center, B. Lowe scored and Díaz scored, Aranda to third.3–5
- 5Marte singled to left, Lindor scored and Nimmo scored, Marte to second, Soto to third.1–5
- 5Soto walked, Alvarez scored, Nimmo to second, Lindor to third.1–3
- 4Taylor grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Alonso scored, Marte out at second, McNeil to third.1–2
- 4Marte reached on infield single to shortstop, Soto scored, McNeil to second, Alonso to third.1–1
- 4Aranda homered to right (389 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 60%
- ML TB +140 / NYM -165
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- NYM: Elo 61.5%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- NYM -149
- TB +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.8 – 4.7 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | +12 | TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.83 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Clay Holmes: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +82 Elo | NYM 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 60.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.68th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.21st of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +1.43rd of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 5th of 3013–12 | Road vs home | 27–71st of 30 |
| 10th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 148930th of 30 |
| 13th of 301517 | Elo rating | 15523rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–34 | 35–34 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 13–24 | 21–29 |
| Underdog | 21–10 | 14–5 |
| Overs–unders | 26–42 | 25–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 4–2 NYM in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.