Washington Nationals at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- James WoodBatting2-4
- Jake IrvinPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting2-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- David PetersonPitching9.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Nimmo homered to right (369 feet).0–5
- 5Nimmo homered to center (387 feet).0–4
- 3Soto homered to right center (408 feet), Lindor scored.0–3
- 1Alonso doubled to center, Nimmo scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 71%
- ML WSH +230 / NYM -285
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.4 pts
- NYM: Elo 63.6%, market 71.0%
- Fair odds
- NYM -244
- WSH +244 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.3 – 5.2 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −3 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +97 Elo | NYM 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 66.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 65.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 71.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.68th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.31st of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +1.33rd of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 17th of 3015–18 | Road vs home | 25–71st of 30 |
| 5th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149030th of 30 |
| 24th of 301468 | Elo rating | 15503rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–30 | 34–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–9 | 20–28 |
| Underdog | 35–21 | 14–5 |
| Overs–unders | 31–35 | 25–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 10–21 NYM in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 31.