Washington Nationals at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Mets- Juan SotoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10McNeil singled to right, Acuña scored, McNeil to second.4–5
- 8Alonso singled to left, Soto scored, Alonso out stretching at second.4–4
- 8Soto doubled to right, Marte scored.4–3
- 5Abrams homered to left center (378 feet).4–2
- 3Soto homered to left center (373 feet).3–2
- 2McNeil singled to center, Nimmo scored.3–1
- 2Abrams doubled to right, Call scored, Tena thrown out at home.3–0
- 1Lowe homered to right center (415 feet), Abrams scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 57%
- ML WSH +125 / NYM -150
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- NYM: Elo 61.1%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- NYM -135
- WSH +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.4 – 4.1 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −8 | WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +78 Elo | NYM 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 58.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.67th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.31st of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +1.34th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 15th of 3015–17 | Road vs home | 24–71st of 30 |
| 8th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149029th of 30 |
| 24th of 301468 | Elo rating | 15493rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–30 | 34–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–9 | 20–27 |
| Underdog | 34–21 | 14–5 |
| Overs–unders | 30–35 | 24–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 10–20 NYM in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 30.