Washington Nationals at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- James WoodBatting3-4
- Michael SorokaPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Mets- Jeff McNeilBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kodai SengaPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9García Jr. scored, Rosario to second, Young to third on passed ball by Alvarez.3–4
- 9García Jr. scored, Rosario to second on passed ball by Alvarez, Young to third on passed ball by Alvarez.3–4
- 9Bell singled to center, Wood scored, Young to second, García Jr. to third.2–4
- 9García Jr. singled to right, Abrams scored, Wood to third.1–4
- 5Nimmo homered to right (360 feet).0–4
- 1McNeil homered to right (342 feet), Lindor scored and Soto scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 63%
- ML WSH +160 / NYM -190
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.8 pts
- NYM: Elo 66.8%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- NYM -170
- WSH +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.7 – 4.8 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +16 | WSH: Michael Soroka: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 0.82 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +122 Elo | NYM 66.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 67.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 67.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.68th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.31st of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +1.43rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 19th of 3015–19 | Road vs home | 26–71st of 30 |
| 5th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 149030th of 30 |
| 25th of 301466 | Elo rating | 15523rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–31 | 35–33 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–9 | 21–28 |
| Underdog | 35–22 | 14–5 |
| Overs–unders | 31–36 | 25–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 10–22 NYM in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 32.