Tampa Bay Rays at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Drew RasmussenPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Tylor MegillPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Díaz tripled to right, B. Lowe scored.8–4
- 5Nimmo singled to right, Lindor scored.7–4
- 5Mauricio homered to right (374 feet).7–3
- 5Walls doubled to left, Thaiss scored.7–2
- 4B. Lowe scored on Megill wild pitch, Aranda to second on wild pitch by Megill, Díaz to third on wild pitch by Megill.6–2
- 4B. Lowe scored on Megill wild pitch, Aranda to second on wild pitch by Megill, Díaz to third on wild pitch by Megill.6–2
- 4Díaz singled to left, Walls scored, B. Lowe to second.5–2
- 4B. Lowe singled to right, Thaiss scored, Walls to third.4–2
- 4Walls hit sacrifice bunt, Mangum scored, Walls to first on fielding error by pitcher Megill, Thaiss to second.3–2
- 4Caminero homered to left center (409 feet).2–2
- 3Nimmo singled to left, Lindor scored.1–2
- 3Baty homered to right (388 feet).1–1
- 3J. Lowe singled to left, Walls scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 57%
- ML TB +125 / NYM -150
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- NYM: Elo 53.6%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- NYM -135
- TB +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.4 – 4.1 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −12 | TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYM: Tylor Megill: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +25 Elo | NYM 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.67th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 3.31st of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +1.33rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 4th of 3014–12 | Road vs home | 27–81st of 30 |
| 10th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 148930th of 30 |
| 13th of 301519 | Elo rating | 15503rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–34 | 35–35 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–24 | 21–30 |
| Underdog | 22–10 | 14–5 |
| Overs–unders | 27–42 | 26–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 5–2 NYM in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.