Tampa Bay Rays at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Shane BazPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Mets- Luisangel AcunaBatting2-3
- Griffin CanningPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Caminero homered to left (365 feet), Walls scored and B. Lowe scored.9–0
- 5Aranda doubled to right, Caminero scored and J. Lowe scored.6–0
- 3Mangum grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Caminero scored, Aranda out at second.4–0
- 2Jansen singled to left, Misner scored, Jansen to second.3–0
- 2Mangum scored on Canning wild pitch, Misner to second on wild pitch by Canning.2–0
- 2Mangum scored on Canning wild pitch, Misner to second on wild pitch by Canning.2–0
- 2Misner grounded into fielder's choice to second, Aranda scored, Caballero out at second, Mangum to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 59%
- ML TB +135 / NYM -160
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- NYM: Elo 56.3%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- NYM -145
- TB +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.3 – 4.2 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −9 | TB: Shane Baz: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYM: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +44 Elo | NYM 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 56.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 3.42nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +1.33rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 4th of 3015–12 | Road vs home | 27–91st of 30 |
| 8th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149030th of 30 |
| 11th of 301522 | Elo rating | 15483rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–34 | 35–36 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–24 | 21–31 |
| Underdog | 23–10 | 14–5 |
| Overs–unders | 28–42 | 27–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 6–2 NYM in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.