Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Ramon LaureanoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching2.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Rays- Brandon LoweBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Garrett CleavingerPitching2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7Aranda singled to center, Caminero scored and J. Lowe scored.8–12
- 7J. Lowe singled to right, B. Lowe scored, Caminero to third.8–10
- 7Caminero reached on infield single to shortstop, Díaz scored, B. Lowe to second.8–9
- 5B. Lowe homered to right center (401 feet), Díaz scored.8–8
- 5Díaz singled to right, Walls scored.8–6
- 5Walls tripled to right, Caballero scored.8–5
- 4Caminero singled to left, Mead scored.8–4
- 3Mangum singled to left, Caminero scored and Morel scored.8–3
- 3Morel doubled to left, Mead scored, Caminero to third.8–1
- 2Laureano homered to right center (352 feet), Westburg scored and Henderson scored.8–0
- 2Henderson singled to center, Holliday scored, Westburg to third.5–0
- 2Mullins homered to right center (388 feet).4–0
- 2Cowser homered to center (388 feet), O'Hearn scored and Sánchez scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 53%
- ML BAL +105 / TB -125
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- TB: Elo 54.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TB -114
- BAL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.1 – 4.4 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −16 | BAL: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.82 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +34 Elo | TB 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.76th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.96th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3015–22 | Road vs home | 24–2119th of 30 |
| 26th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301489 | Elo rating | 152510th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–41 | 38–35 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–24 | 14–25 |
| Underdog | 18–17 | 24–10 |
| Overs–unders | 33–39 | 29–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 18–10 TB in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 28.