Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Mike TroutBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Trent GrishamBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Wells hit sacrifice fly to left, Domínguez scored.3–7
- 8Volpe grounded out to second, Judge scored, Chisholm Jr. to second, Domínguez to third.3–6
- 7Bellinger singled to right, Grisham scored, Bellinger thrown out at second.3–5
- 6Ward homered to right center (381 feet).3–4
- 2Goldschmidt homered to left (370 feet).2–4
- 2Grisham homered to right center (408 feet), LeMahieu scored.2–3
- 2Adell homered to right center (382 feet).2–1
- 1Stanton grounded into fielder's choice to second, Goldschmidt scored, Bellinger out at second.1–1
- 1Trout homered to center (423 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 71%
- ML LAA +230 / NYY -285
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- NYY: Elo 65.5%, market 71.0%
- Fair odds
- NYY -244
- LAA +244 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.3 – 6.2 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1454 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −2 | LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +111 Elo | NYY 65.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 69.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 68.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 71.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.13rd of 30 |
| 24th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.88th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.8 | Margin | +1.32nd of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 6th of 3021–21 | Road vs home | 21–1514th of 30 |
| 16th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 25th of 301454 | Elo rating | 15483rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–37 | 34–39 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–13 | 28–36 |
| Underdog | 32–24 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 39–34 | 31–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 10–8 NYY in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 18.