Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Gary SanchezBatting1-3
- Zach EflinPitching3.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Yankees- J.C. EscarraBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Clarke SchmidtPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Escarra singled to left, Domínguez scored, Volpe to third.0–9
- 5Rice tripled to left, Escarra scored.0–8
- 5Volpe homered to right (347 feet).0–7
- 3Peraza reached on infield single to first, Domínguez scored and Volpe scored.0–6
- 3Escarra hit sacrifice fly to center, Chisholm Jr. scored on error, Volpe safe at second on error, Domínguez safe at third on throwing error by center fielder Mullins.0–4
- 2Rice homered to right (381 feet).0–3
- 2Escarra homered to right (381 feet).0–2
- 1Grisham homered to right (343 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 59%
- ML BAL +135 / NYY -160
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- NYY: Elo 60.1%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -145
- BAL +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.3 – 5.2 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +8 | BAL: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +71 Elo | NYY 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 59.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.14th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.86th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +1.32nd of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 3017–23 | Road vs home | 22–1615th of 30 |
| 24th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301492 | Elo rating | 15482nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–42 | 35–40 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 13–24 | 29–37 |
| Underdog | 20–18 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 34–41 | 31–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 18–12 NYY in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 30.