Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Matt McLainBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Yohel PozoBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Lux grounded out to shortstop, De La Cruz scored.4–1
- 5Friedl hit sacrifice fly to center, Fraley scored.3–1
- 5Fraley doubled to center, Trevino scored.2–1
- 2Pozo singled to right, Arenado scored, Saggese to second.1–1
- 1McLain homered to right center (387 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 50%
- ML CIN -110 / STL -110
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- STL: Elo 53.0%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- STL -100
- CIN -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.8 – 4.8 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −4 | CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +21 Elo | STL 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.77th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.317th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 13th of 3019–21 | Road vs home | 24–147th of 30 |
| 18th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15054th of 30 |
| 18th of 301501 | Elo rating | 151214th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–35 | 42–35 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–23 | 16–22 |
| Underdog | 27–12 | 26–13 |
| Overs–unders | 35–42 | 42–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 15–17 STL in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 32.