New York Yankees at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Reds- Christian Encarnacion-StrandBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Chase BurnsPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 11Lux singled to right, De La Cruz scored, Stephenson to second, Steer to third.4–5
- 11Steer singled to center, McLain scored, De La Cruz to second.4–4
- 11Judge scored on Phillips wild pitch.4–3
- 11Judge scored on Phillips wild pitch.4–3
- 7Encarnacion-Strand doubled to left, Stephenson scored, Trevino scored and Hinds scored.3–3
- 4Volpe tripled to right, Judge scored and Chisholm Jr. scored.3–0
- 4Rice homered to right (427 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 61%
- ML NYY -175 / CIN +145
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- NYY: Elo 54.7%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- NYY -156
- CIN +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 5.2 – 4.3 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −5 | NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Chase Burns (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +32 Elo | NYY 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 61.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.113th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.3 | Margin | +0.512th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3021–17 | Road vs home | 21–1717th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301549 | Elo rating | 150616th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–41 | 44–35 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 31–38 | 14–23 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 29–12 |
| Overs–unders | 31–47 | 35–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 0–10 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 3–4 CIN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 7.