New York Yankees at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Max FriedPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting2-4
- Brady SingerPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Wells singled to left, Domínguez scored.7–1
- 6Stanton grounded out to shortstop, Grisham scored.6–1
- 6Judge doubled to left, LeMahieu scored, Grisham to third.5–1
- 5Volpe hit sacrifice fly to center, Rice scored.4–1
- 4Steer reached on infield single to third, De La Cruz scored on throwing error by third baseman Chisholm Jr..3–1
- 3Chisholm Jr. homered to right center (433 feet), Stanton scored.3–0
- 2Grisham singled to right, Domínguez scored, Wells to second, Volpe to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 65%
- ML NYY -210 / CIN +175
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.3 pts
- NYY: Elo 55.7%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -186
- CIN +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 5.4 – 4.1 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | −4 | NYY: Max Fried: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +40 Elo | NYY 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 64.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 63.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.113th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.3 | Margin | +0.512th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3021–18 | Road vs home | 22–1715th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301548 | Elo rating | 150716th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–42 | 45–35 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 31–39 | 14–23 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 30–12 |
| Overs–unders | 31–48 | 35–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 0–10 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 3–5 CIN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 8.