Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Jacob YoungBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Trevor WilliamsPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Padres- Martin MaldonadoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan BergertPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Iglesias grounded out to first, Sheets scored, Cronenworth to second, Bogaerts to third.3–4
- 5Maldonado homered to left center (400 feet).3–3
- 4Cronenworth doubled to right, Sheets scored.3–2
- 4Bogaerts grounded out to third, Arraez scored.3–1
- 4Wood grounded out to pitcher, Young scored, Abrams to second.3–0
- 2Wood walked, Adams scored, Abrams to second, Young to third.2–0
- 2Young hit sacrifice bunt, Lile scored, Adams to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 60%
- ML WSH +140 / SD -165
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- SD: Elo 61.6%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- SD -149
- WSH +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.8 – 4.7 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1458 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +2 | WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Ryan Bergert: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +82 Elo | SD 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 58.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.217th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.010th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.315th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 20th of 3017–22 | Road vs home | 23–149th of 30 |
| 9th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15027th of 30 |
| 26th of 301458 | Elo rating | 152511th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–39 | 45–33 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–16 | 20–20 |
| Underdog | 39–23 | 25–13 |
| Overs–unders | 38–41 | 34–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–9 SD in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 13.