Kansas City Royals at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Jonathan IndiaBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Machado homered to right (351 feet).6–5
- 8Waters singled to right, Rave scored, Perez to second.6–4
- 8Perez singled to left, Garcia scored, Rave to second.5–4
- 7Sheets singled to center, Arraez scored and Machado scored.4–4
- 6Iglesias singled to right, Bogaerts scored, Cronenworth to second.4–2
- 5Arraez singled to right, Brooks scored, Wade to third.4–1
- 5India homered to left center (403 feet), Fermin scored and Loftin scored.4–0
- 1Witt Jr. homered to left (401 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SD 61%
- ML KC +145 / SD -175
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- SD: Elo 58.6%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- SD -156
- KC +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.3 – 4.2 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | 0 | KC: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +60 Elo | SD 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 58.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 3.910th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 10th of 3018–19 | Road vs home | 21–128th of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15038th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301494 | Elo rating | 152710th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–39 | 44–30 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–26 | 19–17 |
| Underdog | 26–13 | 25–13 |
| Overs–unders | 31–44 | 32–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 3–3 SD in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.