Kansas City Royals at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Jac CaglianoneBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Jacob LatzPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 9Caglianone homered to right center (439 feet).4–1
- 6Semien doubled to left, Langford scored.3–1
- 2Caglianone homered to right center (387 feet).3–0
- 1Pasquantino homered to right (388 feet), Witt Jr. scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 54%
- ML KC +110 / TEX -130
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- TEX: Elo 53.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TEX -119
- KC +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.6 – 3.9 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +3 | KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Shawn Armstrong: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +24 Elo | TEX 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 3.626th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 3.41st of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.314th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 13th of 3017–19 | Road vs home | 23–1512th of 30 |
| 17th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149327th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301492 | Elo rating | 149621st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–39 | 35–39 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–26 | 17–23 |
| Underdog | 25–13 | 18–16 |
| Overs–unders | 31–43 | 24–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 4–10 TEX in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 14.