Kansas City Royals at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Kris BubicPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Rangers- Wyatt LangfordBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rave hit sacrifice bunt, Garcia scored, Perez to second.6–3
- 8Garcia tripled to right, Witt Jr. scored.5–3
- 4Burger doubled to right, Jung scored.4–3
- 3Garcia homered to left center (407 feet), India scored and Witt Jr. scored.4–2
- 3India singled to center, Isbel scored.1–2
- 1A. García singled to center, Langford scored.0–2
- 1Langford doubled to left, Haggerty scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- KC 55%
- ML KC -135 / TEX +115
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.2 pts
- KC: Elo 47.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- KC -124
- TEX +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.0 – 3.5 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +3 | KC: Kris Bubic: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TEX: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +20 Elo | TEX 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 3.626th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 3.31st of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 15th of 3016–19 | Road vs home | 23–1411th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149327th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301490 | Elo rating | 149821st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–39 | 35–38 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–26 | 17–23 |
| Underdog | 25–13 | 18–15 |
| Overs–unders | 30–43 | 23–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 3–10 TEX in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.