Athletics at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Max MuncyBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jacob LopezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting2-4
- Michael LorenzenPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Butler homered to center (426 feet).4–0
- 4Urías doubled to left, Soderstrom scored.3–0
- 2Muncy homered to left (384 feet), Soderstrom scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- KC 59%
- ML ATH +135 / KC -160
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- KC: Elo 60.4%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- KC -145
- ATH +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.3 – 5.2 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1434 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −11 | ATH: Jacob Lopez: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · KC: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +73 Elo | KC 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 59.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.428th of 30 |
| 29th of 306.0 | Runs allowed | 3.76th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.7 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3015–21 | Road vs home | 19–1720th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149916th of 30 |
| 28th of 301434 | Elo rating | 149122nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–37 | 33–37 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–12 | 9–24 |
| Underdog | 28–25 | 24–13 |
| Overs–unders | 43–28 | 30–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 7–6 KC in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.
