Kansas City Royals at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting3-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting2-3
- Jack LeiterPitching5.2 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Perez homered to left (386 feet).6–1
- 5Witt Jr. homered to left (396 feet).5–1
- 4Osuna singled to right, Seager scored on error, Osuna safe at second on fielding error by right fielder Rave.4–1
- 4Perez doubled to center, Pasquantino scored.4–0
- 1Perez homered to right (369 feet), Garcia scored.3–0
- 1Garcia singled to left, Witt Jr. scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 53%
- ML KC +105 / TEX -125
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- TEX: Elo 52.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TEX -114
- KC +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.1 – 4.4 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −13 | KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Jack Leiter: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +18 Elo | TEX 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 3.726th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.31st of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 19th of 3015–19 | Road vs home | 23–138th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149327th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301487 | Elo rating | 150119th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–39 | 35–37 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–26 | 17–22 |
| Underdog | 24–13 | 18–15 |
| Overs–unders | 30–42 | 23–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 2–10 TEX in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.