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San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast

FinalMLB Net, MLB.TV, Padres.TV, SportsNet LA

Away

Padres

39-34

3–4

at

Home

Dodgers

46-29

SD 35%LAD 65%

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Dodger Stadium · MLB Net, MLB.TV, Padres.TV, SportsNet LA

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.

LAD75%50%75%SDStart12345678Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Padres
  • Luis ArraezBatting2-4
  • Stephen KolekPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Dodgers
  • Will SmithBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
  • Justin WrobleskiPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K

Scoring summary

  • 9Smith homered to right center (377 feet).3–4
  • 9Bogaerts doubled to center, Machado scored, Lockridge to third.3–3
  • 9Cronenworth hit sacrifice fly to center, Arraez scored.2–3
  • 5Rushing singled to right, Edman scored and Kim scored.1–3
  • 5Pages hit sacrifice fly to center, Muncy scored.1–1
  • 2Díaz singled to right, Cronenworth scored.1–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Dodgers 65%

SolidHit
SD 35%LAD 65%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.

Market
LAD 65%
ML SD +175 / LAD -210
Pre-line forecast
LAD 62%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
LAD 59%
Ratings vs. market
−6.3 pts
LAD: Elo 58.7%, market 65.1%
Fair odds
LAD -186
SD +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
SD 4.1 – 5.4 LAD
Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorSDLADWhy
Team rating15261562Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers+1+8SD: Stephen Kolek: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · LAD: Emmet Sheehan: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsLAD +61 EloLAD 58.7%
Market-implied ratingsLAD 62.4%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastLAD 61.9%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastLAD 65.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

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San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers compared, with each team's league rank
SDStatLAD
18th of 304.2Runs scored5.61st of 30
11th of 303.9Runs allowed4.623rd of 30
12th of 30+0.3Margin+1.04th of 30
24th of 303–7Last 107–33rd of 30
15th of 3018–21Road vs home27–124th of 30
10th of 301502Opponent Elo15027th of 30
10th of 301526Elo rating15621st of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

PadresDodgers
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJulOct

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonSDLAD
Run line42–3035–39
Last 106–45–5
Favorite19–1726–34
Underdog23–139–5
Overs–unders32–4045–29
Overs–unders, last 106–48–2

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

SD 15–21 LAD in their last 36 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 36.