San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Casey SchmittBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Spencer BivensPitching3.1 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Clayton KershawPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Encarnación scored on error, Knizner safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Rojas, Knizner safe at second on error, Fitzgerald safe at third on error.5–11
- 9Schmitt homered to left center (396 feet), Johnson scored, Flores scored and Smith scored.4–11
- 8Rojas homered to left center (383 feet).0–11
- 6T. Hernández homered to left (422 feet), Smith scored.0–10
- 6Ohtani homered to right center (384 feet).0–8
- 3Kim singled to center, Muncy scored.0–7
- 2Smith hit sacrifice fly to right, Ohtani scored, Betts to third.0–6
- 2Betts doubled to left, Pages scored and Conforto scored, Ohtani to third.0–5
- 2Conforto doubled to right, Muncy scored, Pages to third.0–3
- 2Pages singled to center, T. Hernández scored, Muncy to second.0–2
- 1Ohtani homered to right center (419 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 62%
- ML SF +155 / LAD -185
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- LAD: Elo 56.6%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -166
- SF +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.2 – 5.3 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −7 | SF: Landen Roupp: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAD: Clayton Kershaw: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +46 Elo | LAD 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 58.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.51st of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.95th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 7th of 3019–18 | Road vs home | 23–126th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 30 |
| 13th of 301521 | Elo rating | 15552nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–38 | 32–38 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 12–29 | 23–33 |
| Underdog | 20–9 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 33–37 | 41–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 11–16 LAD in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 27.