Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Michael ConfortoBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Matt SauerPitching4.2 IP, 9 ER, 6 K
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting3-5, 5 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 8Conforto singled to center, Rojas scored, Muncy to second.1–11
- 7Machado singled to left, Maldonado scored and Arraez scored.0–11
- 6Bogaerts singled to center, Arraez scored and Merrill scored.0–9
- 6Machado grounded out to third, Tatis Jr. scored, Arraez to second.0–7
- 6Maldonado homered to left (381 feet).0–6
- 5Machado singled to center, Arraez scored.0–5
- 4Maldonado grounded into double play, third to second to first, Bogaerts scored, Wade out at second, Cronenworth to third.0–4
- 3Merrill tripled to right, Machado scored.0–3
- 3Machado singled to center, Arraez scored.0–2
- 3Arraez doubled to right, Tatis Jr. scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 50%
- ML LAD -110 / SD -110
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- SD: Elo 47.7%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- SD -100
- LAD -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.3 – 4.3 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | 0 | LAD: Lou Trivino (no track record yet) · SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +16 Elo | LAD 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.120th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.88th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.1 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 14th of 3015–16 | Road vs home | 20–116th of 30 |
| 10th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149624th of 30 |
| 1st of 301560 | Elo rating | 15277th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–36 | 39–26 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 22–32 | 18–17 |
| Underdog | 9–4 | 21–9 |
| Overs–unders | 39–28 | 27–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 18–14 SD in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 32.
- Jun 9LAD 8 @ SD 7Picked LAD 52%Hit
- Oct 11SD 0 @ LAD 2PlayoffsPicked LAD 57%Hit
- Oct 9LAD 8 @ SD 0PlayoffsPicked SD 55%Miss
- Oct 8LAD 5 @ SD 6PlayoffsPicked SD 58%Hit
- Oct 6SD 10 @ LAD 2PlayoffsPicked LAD 57%Miss
- Oct 5SD 5 @ LAD 7PlayoffsPicked LAD 55%Hit
- Sep 26SD 2 @ LAD 7Picked LAD 50%Hit
- Sep 25SD 3 @ LAD 4Picked LAD 57%Hit