Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Will SmithBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Dustin MayPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Padres- Tyler WadeBatting1-1, 3 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Merrill doubled to right, Arraez scored.8–7
- 10Edman singled to right, Pages scored.8–6
- 10Pages doubled to left, Muncy scored.7–6
- 5Kim doubled to right, Muncy scored.6–6
- 3Wade tripled to center, Machado scored, Merrill scored and Bogaerts scored.5–6
- 3Smith homered to left center (378 feet), Freeman scored.5–3
- 3T. Hernández hit sacrifice fly to center, Betts scored, Freeman to third.3–3
- 2Cronenworth scored on throwing error by catcher Smith, Tatis Jr. stole third.2–3
- 2Cronenworth scored on throwing error by catcher Smith, Tatis Jr. stole third.2–3
- 1Merrill hit sacrifice fly to center, Arraez scored.2–2
- 1Machado doubled to right, Tatis Jr. scored, Arraez to third.2–1
- 1Smith hit sacrifice fly to right, Freeman scored.2–0
- 1Freeman doubled to right, Ohtani scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 52%
- ML LAD -120 / SD +100
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- LAD: Elo 52.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- LAD -109
- SD +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.3 – 4.2 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +4 | LAD: Dustin May: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SD: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +15 Elo | LAD 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 55.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.021st of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.89th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.1 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 15th of 3014–16 | Road vs home | 20–105th of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149526th of 30 |
| 1st of 301559 | Elo rating | 15286th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–35 | 38–26 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 22–31 | 18–17 |
| Underdog | 9–4 | 20–9 |
| Overs–unders | 38–28 | 26–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 17–14 SD in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 31.
- Oct 11SD 0 @ LAD 2PlayoffsPicked LAD 57%Hit
- Oct 9LAD 8 @ SD 0PlayoffsPicked SD 55%Miss
- Oct 8LAD 5 @ SD 6PlayoffsPicked SD 58%Hit
- Oct 6SD 10 @ LAD 2PlayoffsPicked LAD 57%Miss
- Oct 5SD 5 @ LAD 7PlayoffsPicked LAD 55%Hit
- Sep 26SD 2 @ LAD 7Picked LAD 50%Hit
- Sep 25SD 3 @ LAD 4Picked LAD 57%Hit
- Sep 24SD 4 @ LAD 2Picked SD 51%Hit