San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Casey SchmittBatting1-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Teoscar HernandezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Knizner homered to center (397 feet).6–2
- 7T. Hernández homered to right center (378 feet).5–2
- 3Schmitt homered to left center (423 feet), Lee scored, Ramos scored and Flores scored.5–1
- 2Pages hit sacrifice fly to right, Smith scored, Muncy to second.1–1
- 1Adames homered to right center (380 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 62%
- ML SF +155 / LAD -185
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- LAD: Elo 60.4%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -166
- SF +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.2 – 4.3 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1558 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +20 | SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.98 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +73 Elo | LAD 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 59.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.51st of 30 |
| 4th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.521st of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +1.05th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 7th of 3018–18 | Road vs home | 23–114th of 30 |
| 25th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 30 |
| 13th of 301518 | Elo rating | 15581st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–38 | 32–37 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 12–29 | 23–32 |
| Underdog | 19–9 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 32–37 | 40–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 10–16 LAD in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 26.