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Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast

FinalMLB.TV, SportsNet LA, Padres.TV

Away

Dodgers

41-28

5–2

at

Home

Padres

38-29

LAD 58%SD 42%

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Petco Park · MLB.TV, SportsNet LA, Padres.TV

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.

SD75%50%75%LADStart12345678Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Dodgers
  • Teoscar HernandezBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
  • Ben CaspariusPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Padres
  • Gavin SheetsBatting1-3, 1 RBI
  • Randy VasquezPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K

Scoring summary

  • 9Smith singled to right, Ohtani scored, Freeman to second.5–2
  • 6Sheets hit sacrifice fly to center, Machado scored.4–2
  • 6T. Hernández homered to center (420 feet), Freeman scored and Smith scored.4–1
  • 5Conforto homered to left center (407 feet).1–1
  • 2Maldonado walked, Bogaerts scored, Iglesias to second, Cronenworth to third.0–1

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Dodgers 58%

LeanHit
LAD 58%SD 42%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.

Market
LAD 58%
ML LAD -155 / SD +130
Pre-line forecast
LAD 58%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
LAD 48%
Ratings vs. market
−9.9 pts
LAD: Elo 48.4%, market 58.3%
Fair odds
LAD -140
SD +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
LAD 5.1 – 4.4 SD
Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorLADSDWhy
Team rating15561531Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers−21−3LAD: Ben Casparius: team allows 1.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsSD +11 EloSD 51.6%
Market-implied ratingsLAD 59.2%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastLAD 57.6%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastLAD 58.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

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Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres compared, with each team's league rank
LADStatSD
1st of 305.5Runs scored4.219th of 30
22nd of 304.6Runs allowed3.88th of 30
5th of 30+1.0Margin+0.49th of 30
19th of 304–6Last 106–48th of 30
15th of 3015–17Road vs home21–116th of 30
9th of 301502Opponent Elo149721st of 30
1st of 301556Elo rating15316th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

DodgersPadres
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJulOct

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonLADSD
Run line31–3740–26
Last 101–910–0
Favorite22–3219–17
Underdog9–521–9
Overs–unders40–2828–38
Overs–unders, last 106–44–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

LAD 18–15 SD in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 33.