San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Daniel JohnsonBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sean HjellePitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Andy PagesBatting1-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Dustin MayPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Johnson homered to right center (409 feet).4–5
- 5Pages homered to left center (399 feet), Ohtani scored and Betts scored.3–5
- 4Lee tripled to right, Porter scored and Koss scored.3–2
- 4Koss singled to center, Yastrzemski scored, Porter to second.1–2
- 2Edman homered to right center (400 feet).0–2
- 1Pages hit sacrifice fly to right, Ohtani scored, Freeman to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 64%
- ML SF +165 / LAD -200
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- LAD: Elo 59.5%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- LAD -177
- SF +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.6 – 4.9 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1558 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +2 | SF: Kyle Harrison: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Dustin May: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +67 Elo | LAD 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 63.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 62.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.51st of 30 |
| 4th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.623rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +1.05th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 7th of 3019–19 | Road vs home | 24–125th of 30 |
| 21st of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 13th of 301518 | Elo rating | 15581st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–39 | 33–38 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 12–29 | 24–33 |
| Underdog | 20–10 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 34–37 | 42–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 11–17 LAD in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 28.