San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jake CronenworthBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Diamondbacks- Eugenio SuarezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Machado singled to left, Tatis Jr. scored.8–2
- 9Díaz homered to left center (412 feet).7–2
- 7Machado grounded out to shortstop, Tatis Jr. scored.6–2
- 7Tatis Jr. doubled to left, Díaz scored.5–2
- 5Suárez homered to center (437 feet), Naylor scored.4–2
- 5Arraez doubled to right, Tatis Jr. scored.4–0
- 4Cronenworth homered to right (395 feet), Bogaerts scored.3–0
- 4Bogaerts doubled to left, Sheets scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 55%
- ML SD +115 / ARI -135
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- ARI: Elo 54.4%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -124
- SD +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.0 – 4.5 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +12 | SD: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +30 Elo | ARI 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.14th of 30 |
| 9th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 12th of 3017–19 | Road vs home | 20–1718th of 30 |
| 16th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15123rd of 30 |
| 10th of 301526 | Elo rating | 152211th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–28 | 37–33 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 19–17 | 20–22 |
| Underdog | 22–11 | 17–11 |
| Overs–unders | 29–40 | 35–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 13–15 ARI in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 28.