Seattle Mariners at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Dominic CanzoneBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Emerson HancockPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Josh NaylorBatting3-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 11Naylor homered to right center (387 feet), Herrera scored, Marte scored and Perdomo scored.4–8
- 9Canzone homered to right (450 feet), Young scored.4–4
- 9Young singled to right, Solano scored.2–4
- 9Solano singled to center, Moore scored.1–4
- 7Gurriel Jr. singled to center, Naylor scored.0–4
- 7Naylor doubled to left, Perdomo scored.0–3
- 5Marte singled to center, Thomas scored, Marte to second.0–2
- 1Carroll homered to left (348 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 58%
- ML SEA +130 / ARI -155
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- ARI: Elo 56.1%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -140
- SEA +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.4 – 5.1 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +10 | SEA: Emerson Hancock: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +43 Elo | ARI 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 59.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 5th of 3017–14 | Road vs home | 15–1724th of 30 |
| 30th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 15123rd of 30 |
| 16th of 301508 | Elo rating | 151213th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–37 | 33–32 |
| Last 10 | 0–10 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–31 | 16–21 |
| Underdog | 18–6 | 17–11 |
| Overs–unders | 34–30 | 32–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 4–2 ARI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.