San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting2-3
- Stephen KolekPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Diamondbacks- Josh NaylorBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5Gurriel Jr. singled to left, Perdomo scored, Suárez to second.1–5
- 5Naylor hit sacrifice fly to center, Marte scored.1–4
- 5Carroll homered to left (370 feet).1–3
- 3Perdomo singled to center, Carroll scored, Marte to third.1–2
- 2Naylor homered to right center (379 feet).1–1
- 1Arraez lined out to center, Tatis Jr. scored on throwing error by center fielder Thomas.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 55%
- ML SD +115 / ARI -135
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- ARI: Elo 50.9%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -124
- SD +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.5 – 5.0 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +3 | SD: Stephen Kolek: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +6 Elo | ARI 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.14th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 7th of 3017–17 | Road vs home | 18–1721st of 30 |
| 18th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15113rd of 30 |
| 9th of 301529 | Elo rating | 151912th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–27 | 36–32 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 19–17 | 19–21 |
| Underdog | 21–10 | 17–11 |
| Overs–unders | 28–39 | 34–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 13–13 ARI in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 26.