Seattle Mariners at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Donovan SolanoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Eugenio SuarezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Smith homered to right (375 feet).2–5
- 6Suárez homered to left center (410 feet), Carroll scored, Marte scored and Naylor scored.2–4
- 5Solano homered to left (381 feet).2–0
- 1Polanco singled to right, Rodríguez scored, Arozarena to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 51%
- ML SEA -105 / ARI -115
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- ARI: Elo 51.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ARI -104
- SEA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.2 – 4.3 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −18 | SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.90 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +9 Elo | ARI 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.14th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.226th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 6th of 3017–16 | Road vs home | 17–1721st of 30 |
| 29th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 15112nd of 30 |
| 18th of 301503 | Elo rating | 151713th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–39 | 35–32 |
| Last 10 | 0–10 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 9–31 | 18–21 |
| Underdog | 18–8 | 17–11 |
| Overs–unders | 36–30 | 34–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 4–4 ARI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.