Seattle Mariners at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Rowdy TellezBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan EvansPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Diamondbacks- Gabriel MorenoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Thomas homered to right center (426 feet).3–10
- 8Rodríguez singled to center, Williamson scored, Young to second.3–9
- 6Perdomo sacrificed into double play, right to shortstop, Carroll scored, Marte thrown out at second.2–9
- 6Carroll tripled to center, Thomas scored.2–8
- 6Moreno homered to left (389 feet), Gurriel Jr. scored and Smith scored.2–7
- 6Tellez homered to right center (440 feet).2–4
- 6Arozarena homered to left center (435 feet).1–4
- 5Naylor hit a ground rule double, Thomas scored, Perdomo to third.0–4
- 4Gurriel Jr. homered to left (372 feet).0–3
- 3Perdomo hit sacrifice fly to left, Carroll scored.0–2
- 3Carroll tripled to right, Thomas scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 57%
- ML SEA +120 / ARI -145
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- ARI: Elo 51.9%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- ARI -130
- SEA +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.5 – 5.0 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −13 | SEA: Logan Evans: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +13 Elo | ARI 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.226th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 5th of 3017–15 | Road vs home | 16–1722nd of 30 |
| 29th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 15122nd of 30 |
| 16th of 301506 | Elo rating | 151413th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–38 | 34–32 |
| Last 10 | 0–10 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–31 | 17–21 |
| Underdog | 18–7 | 17–11 |
| Overs–unders | 35–30 | 33–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 4–3 ARI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.