San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Gavin SheetsBatting3-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan BergertPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Diamondbacks- Eugenio SuarezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching6.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Naylor grounded into fielder's choice to first, Perdomo scored.7–8
- 9Perdomo tripled to right, Moreno scored, Thomas scored and Marte scored.7–7
- 9Marte reached on infield single to shortstop, Smith scored, Thomas to second, Moreno to third.7–4
- 9Bogaerts hit sacrifice fly to center, Tatis Jr. scored.7–3
- 9Lockridge reached on infield single to shortstop, Díaz scored, Machado to second, Tatis Jr. to third.6–3
- 7Machado doubled to center, Tatis Jr. and Díaz scored.5–3
- 7Tatis Jr. singled to left, Cronenworth and Sheets scored, Díaz to second.3–3
- 4Suárez homered to left (410 feet), Perdomo scored and Naylor scored.1–3
- 2Sheets homered to right (416 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 61%
- ML SD +145 / ARI -175
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.3 pts
- ARI: Elo 49.6%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- ARI -156
- SD +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.3 – 5.2 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −5 | SD: Ryan Bergert: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +3 Elo | SD 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 56.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.14th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 10th of 3017–18 | Road vs home | 19–1720th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15113rd of 30 |
| 9th of 301527 | Elo rating | 152112th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–28 | 37–32 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 19–17 | 20–21 |
| Underdog | 21–11 | 17–11 |
| Overs–unders | 28–40 | 34–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 13–14 ARI in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 27.