San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Trenton BrooksBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Dodgers- Andy PagesBatting4-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Matt SauerPitching2.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Tatis Jr. scored, Machado to second, Arraez to third on a balk.6–8
- 7Tatis Jr. scored on a balk, Machado to second on a balk, Arraez to third on a balk.6–8
- 7Brooks homered to right center (397 feet), Iglesias scored.5–8
- 6Edman doubled to left, Muncy scored and Pages scored.3–8
- 6Pages singled to left, T. Hernández scored, Muncy to second.3–6
- 6Smith homered to left center (388 feet), Freeman scored.3–5
- 4Pages homered to center (385 feet).3–3
- 3Sheets hit sacrifice fly to center, Tatis Jr. scored, Arraez to third.3–2
- 3Arraez singled to left, Maldonado scored, Tatis Jr. to third.2–2
- 2Pages homered to left center (386 feet).1–2
- 2Muncy hit sacrifice fly to right, Smith scored.1–1
- 1Sheets singled to right, Arraez scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 64%
- ML SD +170 / LAD -205
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- LAD: Elo 57.4%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- LAD -181
- SD +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.6 – 5.9 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1560 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −5 | SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Jack Dreyer: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +52 Elo | LAD 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 68.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 66.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.51st of 30 |
| 10th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.523rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +1.05th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 12th of 3018–20 | Road vs home | 26–124th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 8th of 301527 | Elo rating | 15601st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–29 | 34–39 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 19–17 | 25–34 |
| Underdog | 23–12 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 31–40 | 44–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 15–20 LAD in their last 35 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 35.
- Jun 16SD 3 @ LAD 6Picked LAD 61%Hit
- Jun 11LAD 5 @ SD 2Picked LAD 58%Hit
- Jun 10LAD 1 @ SD 11Picked SD 50%Hit
- Jun 9LAD 8 @ SD 7Picked LAD 52%Hit
- Oct 11SD 0 @ LAD 2PlayoffsPicked LAD 57%Hit
- Oct 9LAD 8 @ SD 0PlayoffsPicked SD 55%Miss
- Oct 8LAD 5 @ SD 6PlayoffsPicked SD 58%Hit
- Oct 6SD 10 @ LAD 2PlayoffsPicked LAD 57%Miss