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San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast

FinalMLB.TV, Padres.TV, SportsNet LA, MLBN

Away

Padres

39-32

3–6

at

Home

Dodgers

44-29

SD 39%LAD 61%

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Dodger Stadium · MLB.TV, Padres.TV, SportsNet LA, MLBN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.

LAD75%50%75%SDStart1234567Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Padres
  • Manny MachadoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
  • Dylan CeasePitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 9 K
Dodgers
  • Shohei OhtaniBatting2-4, 2 RBI
  • Ben CaspariusPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K

Scoring summary

  • 6Machado homered to right (353 feet).3–6
  • 4Betts singled to center, Edman scored, Ohtani to third.2–6
  • 4Ohtani singled to right, Pages scored, Edman to third.2–5
  • 4Edman singled to right, Muncy scored, Pages to second.2–4
  • 4Muncy singled to center, T. Hernández scored and Smith scored.2–3
  • 4Bogaerts doubled to center, Sheets scored.2–1
  • 3Ohtani doubled to center, Pages scored.1–1
  • 1Machado hit sacrifice fly to center, Tatis Jr. scored.1–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Dodgers 61%

LeanHit
SD 39%LAD 61%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.

Market
LAD 61%
ML SD +145 / LAD -175
Pre-line forecast
LAD 58%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
LAD 57%
Ratings vs. market
−3.5 pts
LAD: Elo 57.4%, market 60.9%
Fair odds
LAD -156
SD +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
SD 3.8 – 4.7 LAD
Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorSDLADWhy
Team rating15291559Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers+3+7SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Shohei Ohtani: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsLAD +52 EloLAD 57.4%
Market-implied ratingsLAD 58.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastLAD 57.9%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastLAD 60.9%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

Try another venue →
San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers compared, with each team's league rank
SDStatLAD
17th of 304.2Runs scored5.51st of 30
9th of 303.9Runs allowed4.623rd of 30
12th of 30+0.4Margin+1.05th of 30
20th of 304–6Last 106–47th of 30
10th of 3018–19Road vs home25–124th of 30
16th of 301499Opponent Elo15026th of 30
8th of 301529Elo rating15591st of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

PadresDodgers
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJulOct

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonSDLAD
Run line42–2833–39
Last 108–23–7
Favorite19–1724–34
Underdog23–119–5
Overs–unders30–4043–29
Overs–unders, last 104–67–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

SD 15–19 LAD in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 34.