San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Xander BogaertsBatting4-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan BergertPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Dodgers- Tommy EdmanBatting2-2, 1 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Edman scored on Matsui wild pitch, Rojas to second on wild pitch by Matsui, Ohtani to third on wild pitch by Matsui.5–3
- 9Edman scored on Matsui wild pitch, Rojas to second on wild pitch by Matsui, Ohtani to third on wild pitch by Matsui.5–3
- 9Kim grounded out to shortstop, Muncy scored, Edman to third.5–2
- 9Edman singled to center, T. Hernández scored on error, Edman to second, Muncy to second, Muncy safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Lockridge.5–1
- 8Iglesias walked, Wade scored, Cronenworth to second, Bogaerts to third.5–0
- 8Sheets singled to center, Arraez scored.4–0
- 7Cronenworth hit a ground rule double, Bogaerts scored.3–0
- 5Iglesias hit sacrifice fly to left, Bogaerts scored.2–0
- 2Bogaerts homered to center (401 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 70%
- ML SD +225 / LAD -275
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.4 pts
- LAD: Elo 60.0%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- LAD -238
- SD +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.3 – 5.2 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1563 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +13 | SD: Ryan Bergert: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +71 Elo | LAD 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 71.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 70.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.61st of 30 |
| 11th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.523rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +1.04th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 19th of 3018–22 | Road vs home | 28–122nd of 30 |
| 8th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 30 |
| 11th of 301525 | Elo rating | 15631st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–30 | 35–40 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 19–17 | 26–35 |
| Underdog | 24–13 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 32–41 | 45–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 15–22 LAD in their last 37 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 37.