Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Nathaniel LoweBatting1-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Michael SorokaPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Dodgers- Max MuncyBatting2-4, 2 HR, 7 RBI
- Ben CaspariusPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rosario singled to center, García Jr. scored, Bell to second.7–13
- 9House hit sacrifice fly to right, Call scored, García Jr. to third.6–13
- 9Lowe hit sacrifice fly to left, Abrams scored.5–13
- 9García Jr. singled to center, Young scored, Call to second, Abrams to third.4–13
- 8Ohtani homered to center (383 feet), Rushing scored.3–13
- 7Muncy homered to center (412 feet), Betts scored and Freeman scored.3–11
- 7Betts singled to left, Ohtani scored.3–8
- 7Ohtani tripled to right, Kim scored, Conforto scored and Rushing scored.3–7
- 6Muncy homered to left center (383 feet), Rushing scored, Ohtani scored and Freeman scored.3–4
- 3Lowe homered to center (384 feet), Wood scored and García Jr. scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 64%
- ML WSH +170 / LAD -205
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.8 pts
- LAD: Elo 68.2%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- LAD -181
- WSH +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.1 – 5.4 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1558 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +6 | WSH: Michael Soroka: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAD: Shohei Ohtani: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +133 Elo | LAD 68.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 68.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 68.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.51st of 30 |
| 25th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.623rd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.94th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 3016–21 | Road vs home | 29–144th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 25th of 301456 | Elo rating | 15581st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–38 | 35–43 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–16 | 26–38 |
| Underdog | 38–22 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 36–41 | 47–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 7–10 LAD in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 17.