Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Miguel RojasBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Clayton KershawPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Abrams homered to center (394 feet).5–6
- 7García Jr. doubled to right, Adams scored and Abrams scored, Rosario to third.4–6
- 6Rojas homered to left (396 feet), E. Hernández scored.2–6
- 5Adams homered to left (401 feet).2–4
- 4Ohtani singled to right, Rojas scored.1–4
- 3Pages singled to center, Smith scored, T. Hernández to second.1–3
- 3T. Hernández reached on infield single to shortstop, Betts scored on throwing error by shortstop Abrams, Smith to second.1–2
- 3Betts grounded into fielder's choice to third, E. Hernández scored, Ohtani out at second.1–1
- 1Rosario homered to left center (396 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 62%
- ML WSH +155 / LAD -185
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- LAD: Elo 64.6%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -166
- WSH +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.2 – 4.3 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1454 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −9 | WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Clayton Kershaw: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +105 Elo | LAD 64.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 65.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 65.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.51st of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.523rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +1.04th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3015–20 | Road vs home | 28–133rd of 30 |
| 18th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 25th of 301454 | Elo rating | 15611st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–38 | 35–41 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–16 | 26–36 |
| Underdog | 36–22 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 34–41 | 45–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 6–9 LAD in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 15.