Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Dane MyersBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 0 K
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting1-4, 1 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Wagaman hit sacrifice fly to center, Fortes scored.3–1
- 2Myers homered to left (388 feet).2–1
- 1García Jr. grounded out to second, Call scored, Abrams to third.1–1
- 1Wagaman hit sacrifice fly to right, Ramírez scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 59%
- ML MIA +135 / WSH -160
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- WSH: Elo 55.8%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- WSH -145
- MIA +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.3 – 4.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1444 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +10 | MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +41 Elo | WSH 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 59.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 5.125th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.3 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 25th of 3013–21 | Road vs home | 15–2027th of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15056th of 30 |
| 27th of 301444 | Elo rating | 146225th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–34 | 37–33 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–12 | 1–11 |
| Underdog | 33–22 | 36–22 |
| Overs–unders | 36–32 | 32–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 17–14 WSH in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 31.